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@O.R.Mapper Paradoxically, this isn't impossible :) Anyway, that's not necessarily the case here. It's very well possible that there's an earlier example in which the trope was played straight. Then it was subverted in Goldfinger, parodied in Hogan's Heroes, and played straight again in Juggernaut. The problem is, if such an example exists, nobody has mentioned it here yet. For now, all I can say is that Goldfinger doesn't meet the requirements.
@O.R.Mapper The scene from Goldfinger (1964) is very close, but it doesn't include the choice between two or more wires. James Bond makes an attempt to pull a bunch of wires from the bomb, but he doesn't have to make a choice. TVTropes page includes this scene as a subversion of a trope. That's the reason why Goldfinger doesn't make a valid answer to the question as posted, unlike Juggernaut (the answer from 12 years ago) or Hogan's Heroes (the current accepted answer)
Thank you very much. Turns out I didn't check Live-Action TV section on TVTropes thoroughly enough :) Unlike Juggernaut this scene looks like a parody of something, so I hope to find an even earlier example.
The show itself references a lot of characters (Peggy Carter, Howard Stark, the Howling Commandos, Ivan Vanko, Arnim Zola etc.) and organizations (SSR, SHIELD, Red Room) from the MCU proper. It would take a while to compile a full list. It doesn't have a lot of impact on other movies, although some characters from the show later appear in other MCU properties.
@LWC She didn't have enough time to try, Ultron showed up right after that. We don't know what would happen if she did, we can only speculate. Anyway, even if she starts torturing him with his worst fears (cuttlefish or something else) he still knows that she's not the one in charge.