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Ivan Egorova gave Dominika Egorova a mission, in which she has to meet an American:
You do this for me, and I'll let you go if that's what you want. But I feel you won't. This is what you were meant to do.
Why does Ivan Egorova feel Dominika Egorova won't go even if she complete her mission?
Because you're never really free from the Soviet intelligence services.
Ivan knows this, Dominika knows this. Saying this also reinforces that Dominika has nowhere to go outside of the service and that she'll always live under the threat of surveillance.
Dominika doesn't really have a choice here, it's an illusion of a choice. It'll simply be easier to accept up-front.
But I feel you won't
really means
It's pointless to refuse
