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In season one, episode four of True Detective ("Who Goes There") Rust is in a housing project with the Iron Crusaders raiding a stash house. Someone throws a rock through the window and Lamar (the man in the backwards ball cap) taunts one of the bikers, "you sorry yet motherfucker? I told your cracker ass, bitch ass..." and before he finishes he's pistol whipped and shot.

Rust immediately realizes the situation is heading south a lot faster than he had anticipated. Another biker smashes another window with his shotgun and begins to fire on the other gang members assembled outside. Rust somehow senses a shot is coming and ducks into the corner right before a bullet comes through the wall.

My question is, how did he know the shot was coming right there? Is there someone aiming a gun out of focus that we can't see or was he just playing it safe and ended up being right?

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From what we see and hear in the scene prior, Rustin "Rust" Cohle (McConaughey) knows there's an extremely suspicious, unsympathetic and likely armed crowd gathering in the front.

The rock that goes through the window is thrown right at Rust. So, it's easy enough to imagine a bullet will follow shortly.

Once the armed group outside is being fired upon by the shotgun, Rust expects return fire. This explains why he exits the living room.

Rust is also trying to secure the Iron Crusaders member, Ginger (Joseph Sikora). This explains why he moves towards him.

That a bullet just happens to go through the wall in between the two and the camera is likely just a conveniently plausible location for the effect to happen.

Given the position of the two relative to the broken window being fired through, it is very conceivable that a bullet could just as easily hit either of them.

That said, we can not actually see anyone through the window at any time. At most, we see shadows prior to the rock throw. We do not see any of the people who are returning fire. Rust sees that the situation is becoming unmanageable and makes his play to secure a way out, grab Ginger and leave. There is nothing to indicate that he noticed someone, for example, raising a gun and aiming towards him.

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