Entire post has SPOILERS. If you have not seen CA:CW, be warned.
Zemo's plan seemed to have too many lucky coincidences.
Zemo went to all the trouble of killing the ex-HYDRA guard, bombing the UN, killing the shrink and setting off an EMP just so he could ask Bucky in person about a mission report? How did he know that mission was important?
Without this report, how would Zemo know that Bucky was the one to kill Stark's parents? If he knew, why was he asking for the mission report from everyone in the first place?
Did Zemo know about the existence of a videotape? How could he have known that? Without that tape (or if that tape had been damaged or destroyed in 20+ years), his plan falls apart, since Cap and Ironman make a truce in Siberia.
Zemo planned his revenge for a year (says that to Black Panther in the movie). But the Avengers disagreement starts with the Sokovia accords. How could Zemo have known about the accords which were only proposed after the Nigeria disaster? Very coincidental for Nigeria to happen just as Zemo launches his plan.
Timing. If the emp had been delivered 10 mins before or after the plan falls apart. It has to go off just as he's interrogating Bucky. Also, you would think that the UN would put some guards in the room while sending someone to interrogate such a high value prisoner. If that had happened, and Zemo started to read the activation code words, they would have stopped him right away. Plan fails.
The UN sends their top shrink to talk to Bucky and no one has seen his face? Zemo doesn't even disguise himself.
For the videotape to work, Zemo specifically needed Tony Stark to be there, since the tape only has emotional value for him. Yet Zemo does not provide any information to Stark about the base or the tape. If Falcon had not given Tony the address of the base, he would never have arrived. Cap and Bucky would have shut Zemo down. Plan fails.
Even for a comic book movie where the bad guy's plan only exists to provoke some central conflict, it seems a little too convenient. Anyone see any sense in this plan? What am I missing?