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After Gus fired Walt, prefigured he would kill Hank, threatened Walt's family and left him in the desert near the end of Breaking Bad S4E11 »Crawl Space«, it doesn't seem too hard for Gus to anticipate that Walt might try to kill him. Of course Gus is surrounded by bodyguards all the time, but as a very cautious man, wouldn't it have made sense for him to additionally have somebody shadow Walt in order to avoid unwanted »surprises«?


This of course only applies for the time between the mentioned scene in the desert and the time Gus finds out that Hank is under DEA protection, from when Gus wants to kill Walt anyway. But by then, Walt has already disappeared from his radar and his family is safe at Hank and Marie. But if Gus had kept an eye on Walt from right after he left him at the desert, he'd have probably never lost his track at all.

And probably Gus' face would still be in it's original place.

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    People don't always do things that to others seem obvious. – sanpaco Nov 28 '15 at 10:00
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Because Walt is also a very cautious man. He went for a long time without even his wife figuring out he was cooking meth, and she only found out because she became suspicious when he talked about his second phone whilst under the effects of sedatives and was not fully lucid.

He manages to go even longer without his son finding anything out, not to mention his DEA agent brother-in-law who also only finds out by accident.

He also gets away with multiple murders without getting found out. He is far too clever and careful.

Gus knows all of this. Perhaps not to its fullest extent, but he understands how Walt works, and is very clever himself, so he would at least heavily suspect how clever Walt is and how much he has gotten away with in order to get to where he is.

So Gus knows that as soon as he gets someone to follow Walt, he will notice and evade them. I'm sure Gus would rather have the extra person protecting him, rather than out looking for Walt, who would likely figure out he was being followed very quickly and go back into hiding.

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Honestly, I was surprised when Gus didn't kill Walt in the desert in this episode. There were several times when Gus wanted to get "rid" of Walt and this seemed like the perfect opportunity. He now has Jesse Pinkman, who has proved his loyalty and his ability to cook, after his time in Mexico and being able to cook up to Heisenberg's standards. Also, Jesse is not as threatening as Walt and Gus can "manipulate" him a little bit more than Walt (although Jesse isn't an idiot either). So now that he has Jesse Pinkman, this seems like the perfect chance to get rid of Walt once and for all. I think that he only doesn't kill him simply because he has stood up to Gus and has showed him that he is a professional. In the very first few episodes/exchanges between Walt and Gus, it is apparent that they are both "professionals" who "hide in plain site" and who find it vital to "provide for their family." This male camaraderie along with Walt's reputation, which proceeds him, and his incredible luck, Gus gives him this last pass. Gus should be a little more careful and probably did follow/watch Walt (maybe we just don't see those scenes). When Gus and his men are walking to Gus' car in the parking garage that Walt has strapped a bomb to, and Gus stops before getting near the car, it is apparent that Gus is aware that Walt is up to something. I think that the nursing home and Mr. Salamanca blinds Gus with rage. Although he does have his guy check out the place first (he can never be too careful), but perhaps he underestimated Walt. Maybe he thought he put the fear of "God" in him with his threats in the desert, and his box cutting killings, etc. Maybe he doesn't truly believe Walt has it in him. I think he underestimates Walt- he is suspicious of him, but he doesn't realize that Walt is tricky, cunning, and smart.

(Sry went a bit off topic).

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