I still don't get all the explanations about The Thin Man (Game of Thrones, S5E08, the man who sells "insurance service") which I've read until now in all Q&A forums: the description of the man and the scene in the show, how they coordinate.
According to the explanation, the Thin Man takes the "premium", but refuses to pay the compensation (the "claim") in case an accident occurs to the captain. OK, fair enough - he's a scammer, and the family of the dead resort to the Faceless Men. His life is decided to be taken.
HOWEVER, in the TV show, Jaqen told Arya "a girl would see" [which means Arya would see for herself the thin man is the wrongdoer]. What did she see?
99% of the explanations go by "the man did not pay the captain's family" (?!) In the scene, Arya overheard the conversation in which the captain made his 18th successful voyage, 'without a scratch', and is still alive. How come the thin man have to pay?
When Arya was there to see, it seems that the captain wants to buy the "insurance service" but the thin man refuses to take the "premium" (thus declining to provide his service). He looks at the captain's 'application' and says "Can't do it".
This is totally legitimate in real life. In many cases, it would be a wise decision of the insurance firm, if they deem the deal is too risky. Or - they will do it, it's just the premium will be ridiculously high, so that for the insured it's not worth buying insurance that way. Anyway, insurance is all about risk (probability) assessment and risk-loving/risk-aversion.
Looks like the captain wants to buy insurance for his 19th/future voyage(s), but got turned down by the thin man. The captain showing that he safely returned from his 18th voyage is pretty much like a driver showing the insurance firm that he has a clean record (no accidents, no pulled-over, no claim before...), so that he would get the low premium fee.
But the thin man is not a wrongdoer if we base ONLY on what Arya has seen. He simply doesn't "take the bet". Every words that judge him are from Jaqen's mouth.
(1) Why did the show producer make it so confusing like that?
(2) The thin man is betting that the captain is doing some suicide mission or it's too risky for him to take the deal? That I don't understand as well. Why didn't the Thin man take the money? If the captain returns safely again, he got the premium, if he cannot make it, the thin man still avoids to pay his duty. Strange, isn't it?
Remember that there's no insurance fraud like in these days, where someone intentionally burns down his old garage to claim huge insurance, and the words from Jaqen go like: "It's a strange wager for the captain, he only wins if he loses his life." It is very unlikely that the caption would end his life to get a sum for his family.