In response to Sony pulling The Interview (albeit temporarily), various writers wrote about how much money it was projected to make, had it been released according to schedule. Assuming that the sources reporting these projections are generally reliable in other fields, how trustworthy are they when it comes to movies? In other words, how good are analysts or movie studios at predicting the financial success of a given movie? Bonus points for showing how these predictions are actually factored in to studio's decisions.
Is it possible to predict movie success?
How accurate it can be?
Nobody knows. Maybe 70% to 90%.
There are already various models present for movie success prediction but they not always succeed. One formula is here.
These days this formula is more based on Search engines to predict early audience response. But star cast, advertisement and tie-in materiel also come in calculation. Oxford University scientists claims 77% success rate of their formula.
These days you can say adaption (book or comics) have better success rate than indies but exceptions are there too: John Carter and Green Lantern.