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In The Shawshank Redemption, Andy told Red about his dream of the pacific ocean and at last when Andy is about to break out he told Red to visit a specific hayfield near Buxton to retrieve a package.

Now, Andy has been in prison for more than 19 years and he does not have any information about the outside world. So how was Andy so sure that the tree was still there after 19 years?

I know Andy hid that cache after he escaped from Shawshank. But how was he sure about the tree when inside the prison?

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It is safe to assume that he figures when he went in a 100 year old tree was there and unless suddenly people decided to bulldoze the trees down indiscriminately that it was probably still there as an old tree that has survived as long as it has. At the end of the day though, he did't know if they had cut the tree down or not, he was going on faith that it was still there like it was when he went in. Its more of the symbolism of something enduring like an old solitary tree that is there year in year out and long after we come and gone.

Update

In Stephen King's manuscript, the tree occupied a field in Buxton, Maine, but in real life the scene was shot 810 miles away in Richland County, Ohio. Five years ago, lightning hit the oak and some of the tree was damaged. Jodie Snavely with the Mansfield & Richland County Convention and Visitors Bureau says the rest of the tree fell Friday due to high winds. "It's a sad day for Shawshank fans," she said. Thanks to the film, the field and tree have become an international tourist destination.

SOURCE: CNN 02/22/2016

UPDATE 2

What remained of a 200-year-old oak tree made famous by the movie "Shawshank Redemption" has been cut up and hauled away by an owner of the north-central Ohio property.

The Mansfield News-Journal reports (http://ohne.ws/2ohFpuC ) Dan Dees said last week he plans to use some of the wood to make a table. The tree was rotted in the middle when high winds knocked down a portion in 2011. It was further damaged during a storm last July.

SOURCE: MSN 04/08/2017

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Oak trees live for a long time, 100 years to 200 years or more. They can continue to withstand the elements long after the person who planted them is gone. That is why they are symbols of strength, endurance and... hope.

Also the location of the tree, Buxton is a small town of just a couple of thousand people. It is very unlikely that even a few decades later, the land on which the tree stood would have been 'developed' into a shopping complex or apartment building or houses or a parking lot etc. So, Andy made the obvious assumption that the farm and the tree and the rock wall will still be there.

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