Summary:
Yes, he probably should have seen it coming. But, it was a good plot device to highlight Roy's mental superiority.
Detailed:
It's worth pointing out that, although Ridley Scott denied it was intentional, this game uses the conclusion of the Immortal Game:
The Immortal Game is a chess game played by Adolf Anderssen and Lionel
Kieseritzky on 21 June 1851 in London, during a break of the first
international tournament. The bold sacrifices made by Anderssen to
secure victory have made it one of the most famous chess games of all
time. Anderssen gave up both rooks and a bishop, then his queen,
checkmating his opponent with his three remaining minor pieces. The
game has been called an achievement "perhaps unparalleled in chess
literature".
So for a start - the ending of this game is based on real events (although the pieces in that game were laid out slightly differently). That doesn't mean to say though that Tyrell shouldn't have seen it coming. Even in the Immortal Game, when defeat was near, it was obvious to both players. I suspect here it has been left out for dramatic effect.
Secondly, it's far more important as a thematic plot device. Remember, although computers had beaten humans at chess, it had never happened to the highest ranking players. As this link shows, "chess computers were first able to beat strong chess players in the late 1980s."
This film, released in 1982, was obviously much earlier than that. So here we see Tyrell, a genius and the creator of the replicants, has been beaten not just by a machine, but a machine he created.
When Tyrell is then killed, the ultimate superiority of the replicant over the man is complete.
This link has a nice description of these themes, highlighting the fact the game is based off The Immortal Game stating:
The concept of immortality has obvious associations in the ensuing
confrontation between Tyrell and Batty. On one level, the game
represents the struggle of the replicants against the humans: the
humans consider the replicants pawns, to be removed one by one. The
individual replicants (pawns) are attempting to become immortal (a
queen). At another level, the game between Tyrell and Sebastian
represents Batty stalking Tyrell. Tyrell makes a fatal mistake in the
chess game, and another fatal mistake trying to reason with Batty.
The Blade Runner Wiki also has this to add:
This is a theme subtly reiterated by the chess game between J.F.
Sebastian and Tyrell based on the famous Immortal Game of 1851
symbolizing the struggle against mortality imposed by God. The Blade
Runner FAQ offers further interpretation of the chess game, saying
that it "represents the struggle of the replicants against the humans:
the humans consider the replicants pawns, to be removed one by one.
The individual replicants (pawns) are attempting to become immortal (a
queen). At another level, the game between Tyrell and Sebastian
represents Batty stalking Tyrell. Tyrell makes a fatal mistake in the
chess game, and another fatal mistake trying to reason with Batty."
To conclude, I agree Tyrell really should have seen the move coming, particularly if his chess is as proficient as it appears. Any simple browsing of chess rankings shows that at higher levels, the ability of players is staggering and the statistical probability of their victory, or at least their understanding of the game, is colossal. so I agree with you that Tyrell should have seen the move.
But, as a thematic plot device, it worked well to have him be completely clueless and appear so inferior to his own creation.
Edit
William M. Kolb, in his ‘Blade Runner Film Notes’ (pp. 165-166),
observes that Sebastian is scripted in the film as a chess
grandmaster, and that this both highlights Tyrell’s genius and
elevates Roy to an altogether new level of intelligence. However, all
three players act in a manner that is thoroughly inconsistent with
this portrayal.
The link goes on to in detail describe what each of the three characters - Tyrell, Sebastian and Roy were likely thinking and the meaning behind their moves. Very interesting and well worth reading.
Edit 2
Just to confirm the scene: Sebastian and Tyrell are playing. Sebastian is a grand master and has never beaten Tyrell. Roy whispers in Sebastian's ear how to win (as per the script):
Sebastian: Queen to Bishop 6. Check.
Tyrell: Nonsense. Just a moment.
Mmm. Queen to Bishop 6. Ridiculous. Queen to Bishop 6. Hmm... Knight
takes Queen. -- What's on your mind Sebastian? What are you thinking
about.
Roy: (whispered) Bishop to King 7. Checkmate.
Sebastian: Bishop
to King 7. Checkmate, I think.
Tyrell: Got a brainstorm, huh,
Sebastian? Milk and cookies kept you awake, huh? Lets discuss this.
You better come up, Sebastian.