I think Graves said something along the lines of "for the greater good" which is the punchline and motto of you-know-who-2. The whole speech he gave was reeking of you-know-who-2's ideology
Also he attacked the ministry with quite expertise.. which ministry employee would do that ?
The way he interacted with Credence and how he egged on Credence to unleash his power.
I'm sure with prior knowledge of the sort of person you-know-who-2 is.. it ticked off some alarm Inot newtsin Newt's head
Or he could just be absolutely lucky.