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Well, I don't have proof for this and haven't thought as much about it as you did. I always just took it as a lucky guess and a nice fitting scene, even if not perfectly realistic. You're right in that he couldn't hear it, I think. Exley surely knows that the DA/police/government don't want to tell the truth to the people, regarding the involvement of ...

I think it is more than a lucky guess, and Exley is definitely not able to hear their conversation. The moment is his final step in learning to play the system efficiently. He knows how interrogations work and who is likely to be listening in. He knows what has happened and, being the cleverest among the characters, the optimal resolution. The moment is ...